Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The German Hyperinflation, 1923



Before World War I Germany was a prosperous country, with a gold-backed currency, expanding industry, and world leadership in optics, chemicals, and machinery. The German Mark, the British shilling, the French franc, and the Italian lira all had about equal value, and all were exchanged four or five to the dollar. That was in 1914. In 1923, at the most fevered moment of the German hyperinflation, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Mark was one trillion Marks to one dollar, and a wheelbarrow full of money would not even buy a newspaper. Most Germans were taken by surprise by the financial tornado.

"My father was a lawyer," says Walter Levy, an internationally known German-born oil consultant in New York, "and he had taken out an insurance policy in 1903, and every month he had made the payments faithfully. It was a 20-year policy, and when it came due, he cashed it in and bought a single loaf of bread." The Berlin publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote that an American visitor tipped their cook one dollar. The family convened, and it was decided that a trust fund should be set up in a Berlin bank with the cook as beneficiary, the bank to administer and invest the dollar.

In retrospect, you can trace the steps to hyperinflation, but some of the reasons remain cloudy. Germany abandoned the gold backing of its currency in 1914. The war was expected to be short, so it was financed by government borrowing, not by savings and taxation. In Germany prices doubled between 1914 and 1919.

After four disastrous years Germany had lost the war. Under the Treaty of Versailles it was forced to make a reparations payment in gold-backed Marks, and it was due to lose part of the production of the Ruhr and of the province of Upper Silesia. The Weimar Republic was politically fragile.

But the bourgeois habits were very strong. Ordinary citizens worked at their jobs, sent their children to school and worried about their grades, maneuvered for promotions and rejoiced when they got them, and generally expected things to get better. But the prices that had doubled from 1914 to 1919 doubled again during just five months in 1922. Milk went from 7 Marks per liter to 16; beer from 5.6 to 18. There were complaints about the high cost of living. Professors and civil servants complained of getting squeezed. Factory workers pressed for wage increases. An underground economy developed, aided by a desire to beat the tax collector.

On June 24, 1922, right-wing fanatics assassinated Walter Rathenau, the moderate, able foreign minister. Rathenau was a charismatic figure, and the idea that a popular, wealthy, and glamorous government minister could be shot in a law-abiding society shattered the faith of the Germans, who wanted to believe that things were going to be all right. Rathenau's state funeral was a national trauma. The nervous citizens of the Ruhr were already getting their money out of the currency and into real goods -- diamonds, works of art, safe real estate. Now ordinary Germans began to get out of Marks and into real goods.

Pianos, wrote the British historian Adam Fergusson, were bought even by unmusical families. Sellers held back because the Mark was worth less every day. As prices went up, the amounts of currency demanded were greater, and the German Central Bank responded to the demands. Yet the ruling authorities did not see anything wrong. A leading financial newspaper said that the amounts of money in circulation were not excessively high. Dr. Rudolf Havenstein, the president of the Reichsbank (equivalent to the Federal Reserve) told an economics professor that he needed a new suit but wasn't going to buy one until prices came down.

Why did the German government not act to halt the inflation? It was a shaky, fragile government, especially after the assassination. The vengeful French sent their army into the Ruhr to enforce their demands for reparations, and the Germans were powerless to resist. More than inflation, the Germans feared unemployment. In 1919 Communists had tried to take over, and severe unemployment might give the Communists another chance. The great German industrial combines -- Krupp, Thyssen, Farben, Stinnes -- condoned the inflation and survived it well. A cheaper Mark, they reasoned, would make German goods cheap and easy to export, and they needed the export earnings to buy raw materials abroad. Inflation kept everyone working.

So the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop. The price increases began to be dizzying. Menus in cafes could not be revised quickly enough. A student at Freiburg University ordered a cup of coffee at a cafe. The price on the menu was 5,000 Marks. He had two cups. When the bill came, it was for 14,000 Marks. "If you want to save money," he was told, "and you want two cups of coffee, you should order them both at the same time."

The presses of the Reichsbank could not keep up though they ran through the night. Individual cities and states began to issue their own money. Dr. Havenstein, the president of the Reichsbank, did not get his new suit. A factory worker described payday, which was every day at 11:00 a.m.: "At 11:00 in the morning a siren sounded, and everybody gathered in the factory forecourt, where a five-ton lorry was drawn up loaded brimful with paper money. The chief cashier and his assistants climbed up on top. They read out names and just threw out bundles of notes. As soon as you had caught one you made a dash for the nearest shop and bought just anything that was going." Teachers, paid at 10:00 a.m., brought their money to the playground, where relatives took the bundles and hurried off with them. Banks closed at 11:00 a.m.; the harried clerks went on strike.

The flight from currency that had begun with the buying of diamonds, gold, country houses, and antiques now extended to minor and almost useless items -- bric-a-brac, soap, hairpins. The law-abiding country crumbled into petty thievery. Copper pipes and brass armatures weren't safe. Gasoline was siphoned from cars. People bought things they didn't need and used them to barter -- a pair of shoes for a shirt, some crockery for coffee. Berlin had a "witches' Sabbath" atmosphere. Prostitutes of both sexes roamed the streets. Cocaine was the fashionable drug. In the cabarets the newly rich and their foreign friends could dance and spend money. Other reports noted that not all the young people had a bad time. Their parents had taught them to work and save, and that was clearly wrong, so they could spend money, enjoy themselves, and flout the old.

The publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote: "People just didn't understand what was happening. All the economic theory they had been taught didn't provide for the phenomenon. There was a feeling of utter dependence on anonymous powers -- almost as a primitive people believed in magic -- that somebody must be in the know, and that this small group of 'somebodies' must be a conspiracy."

When the 1,000-billion Mark note came out, few bothered to collect the change when they spent it. By November 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion Marks, the breakdown was complete. The currency had lost meaning.

What happened immediately afterward is as fascinating as the Great Inflation itself. The tornado of the Mark inflation was succeeded by the "miracle of the Rentenmark." A new president took over the Reichsbank, Horace Greeley Hjalmar Schacht, who came by his first two names because of his father's admiration for an editor of the New York Tribune. The Rentenmark was not Schacht's idea, but he executed it, and as the Reichsbank president, he got the credit for it. For decades afterward he was able to maintain a reputation for financial wizardry. He became the architect of the financial prosperity brought by the Nazi party.

Obviously, though the currency was worthless, Germany was still a rich country -- with mines, farms, factories, forests. The backing for the Rentenmark was mortgages on the land and bonds on the factories, but that backing was a fiction; the factories and land couldn't be turned into cash or used abroad. Nine zeros were struck from the currency; that is, one Rentenmark was equal to one billion old Marks. The Germans wanted desperately to believe in the Rentenmark, and so they did. "I remember," said one Frau Barten of East Prussia, "the feeling of having just one Rentenmark to spend. I bought a small tin bread bin. Just to buy something that had a price tag for one Mark was so exciting."

All money is a matter of belief. Credit derives from Latin, credere, "to believe." Belief was there, the factories functioned, the farmers delivered their produce. The Central Bank kept the belief alive when it would not let even the government borrow further.

But although the country functioned again, the savings were never restored, nor were the values of hard work and decency that had accompanied the savings. There was a different temper in the country, a temper that Hitler would later exploit with diabolical talent. Thomas Mann wrote: "The market woman who without batting an eyelash demanded 100 million for an egg lost the capacity for surprise. And nothing that has happened since has been insane or cruel enough to surprise her."

With the currency went many of the lifetime plans of average citizens. It was the custom for the bride to bring some money to a marriage; many marriages were called off. Widows dependent on insurance found themselves destitute. People who had worked a lifetime found that their pensions would not buy one cup of coffee.

Pearl Buck, the American writer who became famous for her novels of China, was in Germany in 1923. She wrote later: "The cities were still there, the houses not yet bombed and in ruins, but the victims were millions of people. They had lost their fortunes, their savings; they were dazed and inflation-shocked and did not understand how it had happened to them and who the foe was who had defeated them. Yet they had lost their self-assurance, their feeling that they themselves could be the masters of their own lives if only they worked hard enough; and lost, too, were the old values of morals, of ethics, of decency."

The fledgling Nazi party, whose attempted coup had failed in 1923, won 32 seats legally in the next election. The right-wing Nationalist party won 106 seats, having promised 100 percent compensation to the victims of inflation and vengeance on the conspirators who had brought it.

Copyright © 1981 by George J. W. Goodman. All rights reserved.

Past Life Regression || Soul Journey-Satyuga || Payal Shah ||

Friday, August 27, 2021

Electricity from methol

wood gasifier power generators
distill methanol from plants, trees, shrubs, bushes, then use that to fuel generators. More energy frim less greenery, more control, more fuel sources.

I seen a story today the landlord is living in her car and her renters refuse to move for non payment. The renter is saying she doesn't have the money.
"Biden wants states to enact an eviction moratorium for the remainder of the pandemic."

Translation: the moratorium will never end because all the Democrats have to do is extend the pandemic indefinitely.

Rs 3.1 lakh crore worth recapitalisation bonds

The NDA government too has used a similar strategy to inject capital into state-owned banks and other institutions by issuing recapitalisation bonds worth Rs 3.1 lakh crore, which will come up for redemption between 2028 and 2035.

UPA government issued oil bonds for which the principal amount is over Rs 1 lakh crore, and for the last seven fiscals, the government has been paying over Rs 9,000 crore interest annually

The Centre's revenue from taxes on crude oil and petroleum products jumped 45.6% in 2020-21 to Rs 4.18 lakh crore. Excise duty on petroleum products jumped over 74% year-on-year to Rs 3.45 lakh crore in 2020-21, according to government data.

Oil bonds UPA: Instead of paying direct subsidy to oil marketing companies from the Budget, the then government issued oil bonds totalling Rs 1.34 lakh crore to the state-fuel retailers in a bid to contain the fiscal deficit.

Thursday, August 19, 2021

7 Rules of Motivation

1. Set a goal and follow a path. The path has mini goals that go in many directions. When you learn to succeed at mini goals, you will be motivated to challenge grand goals. 2. Finish what you start. A half finished project is of no use to anyone. Quitting is a habit. Develop the habit of finishing self-motivated projects. 3. Socialize with others of similar interest. Mutual support is motivating. We will develop the attitudes of our five best friends. If they are losers, we will be a loser. If they are winners, we will be a winner. To be a cowboy we must associate with cowboys. 4. Learn how to learn. Dependency on others for knowledge supports the habit of procrastination. Man has the ability to learn without instructors. In fact, when we learn the art of self-education we will find, if not create, opportunity to find success beyond our wildest dreams. 5. Harmonize natural talent with interest that motivates. Natural talent creates motivation, motivation creates persistence and persistence gets the job done. 6. Increase knowledge of subjects that inspires. The more we know about a subject, the more we want to learn about it. A self-propelled upward spiral develops. 7. Take risk Failure and bouncing back are elements of motivation. Failure is a learning tool. No one has ever succeeded at anything worthwhile without a string of failures

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Why do we have to look for a job?

Technical analysis (Gold price set to rise)

The hammer and hanging man are my two most favorite indicators!



Inflation picking up

The failure in Afghanistan is likely to accelerate the expected exit from the USD. Just bought a 7 kw generator for a boat … dam hard to source and was lucky to get it. Prices are higher than last year and some dealers who still have available units are tacking on a surcharge over their published price. Most suppliers are taking orders but have no stock. Harder times are coming fast…. If you want something get it sooner than later… money in the bank is loosing value as all prices are rising. You might say … what does he want a boat for? It's a cheaper living home, travel and fishing platform.

Monday, August 9, 2021

Sunday, August 8, 2021

Gold future

This is just my opinion and it looks pretty obvious now, it's in our faces.
Digital coins will be run along side with the global current currencies.
When that stabilizes to their liking they will drop all currencies.
Overnight like Lynette says. Lynette knows their MO, how they perform in these situations.
Right before the crash gold and silver will be as suppressed as they can. The lowest of the low…
Silver will be so suppressed silver holders will be diving out of it and investors will not even give it a sniff( kinda like now) and others will be buying more.
Then the crash
Immediately after the crash, silver and gold will still have the same suppressed prices.
People/nations who lost everything will be selling their gold and silver to the banks or private individuals. Everything to save their families and belongings, food will be the most talked about subject for most and where to find it.
People/1%s  will be buying homes, land etc. for a song because these ones trapped will be desperate to own some silver/gold so they will trade these items, actually at this time silver and gold will be used as real money lawfully.
The banks will accept PMs as payments at the suppressed prices, the prices BEFORE the crash, to the desperate people.
When that drizzles out and is done, and it shouldn't take but a few months, the real prices of PMs will become unattainables.
People with tangible assets will own less tangibles but they were smart in buying gold and silver before the
Unattainable stage…I don't think we will even wear pm as jewelry..
This all could happen within months.

 Metals will be kept super low for 3-6 months after the reset/dollar crash. That way, ppl cash in their metals, but cannot pay off their debt.
 
 I think having gold during this time will be the best choice because it's so much more valuable than silver if your gonna try and pay your stuff off,,,,but hey, I can't afford gold…if it comes to where I can't pay for my house, I'm hoping to quick sell maybe my equity will help me get out of the mortgage, I will NOT fork over my valuables, hang on to those,, if I cant sell I will walk away from  my house and rent , live in my car or camp somewhere for a few months, let them take me to court! and then the unattainables come around, I'm in the game again. I will buy a better house for a song.yea, I'm feelin your angry face…if it gets bad just walk away, that's what I'm gonna do, I'm stepping out of their game and hopefully build my own game,,,just wait  until they are done sucking the life blood out of the silver and gold market..because we all know how gold and silver will be repriced,,,heck, maybe electronics will be too expensive to own for the main stream class..anyway,,,exciting times ahead but exciting doesn't mean fun.
 

Petrol Price Hike & What Indian Stock Market Investors Must Do?

Friday, August 6, 2021

Hindalco Industries reports PAT of Rs 2,787 crore in Q1 FY22 Read more... Read more at: https://www.capitalmarket.com/news/hot-pursuit/hindalco-industries-reports-pat-of-rs-2-787-crore-in-q1-fy22/1270002


Hindalco Industries Ltd.is an industry leader in aluminium and copper. The product range of the company includes Alumina chemicals-Aluminas and hydrates &Minerals.Primary aluminium-Ingots,Wire rods &Billets.Aluminium extrusions. Aluminium rolled products. Aluminium foil & packaging. Aluminium alloy wheels.Copper products:- Copper cathodes&Continuous cast copper rods.Other:-Sulphuric acid,Phosphoric acid,Phospho gypsum &Copper slag..The company also in the business segment of Copper, Aluminium.

Thursday, August 5, 2021

Home loan revalued to new Peso during Mexican Peso Crisis

I would like to add that during the Mexican Peso Crisis, the Mexican banks revalued the mortgages to the "new" value of the Peso and people were wiped out.  That included many American retirees who bought property there during that time.  Of course who owned those despicable Mexican Banks?  Why Bank of America of course!  Just to name one of them.  Pay your mortgage off if you can!
whatever balance you owed, your loan was "recalculated" based on the "new" Peso which was 10-20x higher or MORE.
No, look at weimar germany, the mortgages there were revalued in gold, if you didn't have the gold you were fucked.
countries that have experienced hyper inflation have not returned to gold or silver coinage or a gold backed currency . Germany replaced the R-Mark with the D-Mark , Brazil and Argentina introduced new paper currencies , Zimbabwe with domestic gold production has reintroduced a new paper currency . Only Countries with sound paper money have returned to a gold standard .


I have a question about paying off debt such as mortgages or loans. If cash is being devalued in a direction like Venezuela/Zimbabae/Germany... then wouldn't it make sense to have as much debt at low interest rates as possible. If you bought a home for $500,000 twenty years ago and paid $1000 (or whatever) per month. How much would that $1000 payment be be worth after years of inflation/devaluation. The home would probably have doubled/ tripled or more but the monthly payment of $1000 would be a bargain at today's rental prices. Same as if you took out a loan today to buy silver/gold... your loan payment becomes devalued while your gold/silver investment goes up?
Govts always reset mortgages to the current level of currency valuations. They can never ever allow freedom from debt slavery then we would not need politicians nor big govt. Venezuela reset mortgages. Some people owed $5,000 mortgage now they owe $50,000,000 after the govt reset them. There was a 7 month window during chaos you could have paid off the mortgage using somewhat inflated dollars. Maybe would have saved you 20%-30% is all. Then they repriced mortgages. They are bastards. Bankers are crooks that own politicians. The avg wage there is $40,000 per month but s hot dog on the street cost $9,000.
exacty John! The only way Sandy could win is if he could afford to pay off the loan in full at any time and hence didn't need the loan. then you win.-But then why deal with the bastard bankers at all- While this is an unusual situation where banks are guarenteed to lose, they know it and as before are not making new loans for any situation they will not recoup their money or house in a default, currency reset, hyper inflation .... Imagine if your $1000 dollar payment on loan could buy you a loaf of bread  or pay the mortgage  and your wages haven't gone up.? Now if as a corp you could get cheap interest loans and buy back a bunch of your stock , inflating the value with government handouts while nothing more in the company has increased production or added value. Sound familiar, Zombie companies used to fail now just the middle class fails.
Don't go crazy and derail any trains though.

John Law and the creation of the Mississippi company along with the introduction of massive sums of unbacked paper currencies is a prime example of how expanding money supply leads to massive price increases and eventually total economic disaster. Great example of financial history that we are doomed to repeat.