Monday, May 4, 2020

Thoughts 3May2020

my grandpa sold his house in iraq when the iraqi dinar was 3 dollars then hyper inflation made it where 1000 dinars are 1 dollar. if he bought gold he would have over 4 million dollar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1nXouWGoyE

I live in uk, went to supermarket for some basics today the queue was so big to get in I came home instead and have decided to fast for a couple of days

I've been trying to wake up my friends here in Canada for the last 8 years with your videos, it's like banging my head against the wall.


But recently I've been sharing your Hidden Secrets of Money series with my friends in Venezuela, bang instantly get it, and understand everything what a huge difference, they ask me all the time for more info

My employer is seeing record setting sales in online sales of auto parts. I figure it's because everyone got free money. I think within the next month or so those sales will die off. If business keeps going its because no one is purchasing new or used cars.  Only time will tell but online auto parts is expected to grow at about 4.5% over the next few years.

But I learned that people that are saving currency while the Fed is in overdrive printing it, are actually losing purchasing power of their currency already in existence.

For those of you that say you shouldn't fight the fed, lemme drop some truth on you;  I've been doing this for 28 years.  Former Merrill Investment Banker/broker.  Spent some time in the Fed, seen how the sausage is made.  The Fed open market desk has a limited list of assets it is allowed to buy at any given time, and a limited AMOUNT that they are allowed to buy.  They CANNOT support the entire market.  2.3 Trillion is a micro-fraction of the money they would need to support all equities and bonds in all markets.  The bond market is WAY bigger than the equity market.  However, the Fed WANTS you to believe they can support the market, so, when things start to take a dump, you'll HESITATE to pick up the phone to your broker and panic sell.  But, when a downturn happens, the Fed cannot and will not reach out and purchase ALL assets.  One month is short-term, but this policy the Fed is currently pursuing is DANGEROUS!  Believe me, all of those dollars finding their way from the Fed into ETF's, MBS's, CLO's and Corporate bond funds WILL eventually find its way into the general economy, and when that happens, inflation will hit hard.  When that happens, bond yields will SPIKE, "Investment Grade" BBB- corporate bonds will no longer be able to afford their coupons, they'll get downgraded, pension funds (the only holder of corporate debt today) will be forced to sell as pension funds are fiduciaries and NOT ALLOWED TO HOLD JUNK.  This will result in a fire sale of both bonds and equities, where there are no natural buyers for either, and the whole house of cards will come crashing down.  Think about it!  IF it were possible to keep markets artificially inflated on into perpetuity, then the many presidents of the past would have done just that.  We would all be millionaires, everyone could retire with plenty of money, the market would never go down.  GROW UP PEOPLE.  Nothing stays up forever, and the markets ALWAYS win by returning to the mean.  PERIOD.  I hope this saves you money and indigestion.

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